You might be right about the rationalizing. On August 17, 2009 MFN was at 7.99. Now if Minefinders drops down to that level again and bounces up from there, that would be a buy signal in my book. I would call the $7.99 US price a pivot point. But until the stock does that, this is not a buy for me. Gold and silver are near all time highs, but can't seem to break out into new highs. But the end of the year should be positive for gold and silver equities. Minefinders is volatile, I am hoping it will go down some from here, to make a trade. Good luck to all!
ORIGINAL POST:
We are still on target for our model portfolio to move from cash into Minefinders (MFN) on or about October 7, 2009. In the meantime, expect gold and silver shares to be much lower in price a few days from now. For now, cash is king. You want to make money trading stocks? - follow this formula. We are presenting some information below, that if you master it, will put you far ahead of the average trader. Check it out.
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Quotable – A lesson from Jesse Livermore we keep re-learning:
“It was the change in my own attitude toward the game that was of supreme importance to me. It taught me, little by little, the essential difference between betting on fluctuations and anticipating inevitable advances and declines, between gambling and speculating. I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, "Well, you know this is a bull market!" he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend. And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance. “ Jesse Livermore-------
Courtesy of the Leavitt Brothers:
Today we talk about Jesse Livermore… arguably the greatest traders is history. There is not a single trader on Forbes 400…not one. There are a few speculators, but those guys ran hedge funds. No one has ever started with pocket change and built the fortune Livermore did. He was worth over 200 million in 1929 after the market crashed…many billion dollars adjusted to today. This document is broken into 3 sections. 1) Livermore’s 5 money management rules 2) Quotes from Livermore 3) Comments about Livermore made by Richard Smitten in his book “Jesse Livermore World’s Greatest Stock Trader.”
Part 1 – Livermore’s 5 money management rules.
1) Don’t lose money. Don’t lose your stake. A speculator without cash is like a store-owner with no inventory. Cash is your inventory, your lifeline, and your best friend. Without cash, you are out of business. Don’t lose your line. There is no place in speculating for hoping, for guessing, for fear, for greed, for emotions. The tape tells the truth.
2) Always establish a stop. A successful speculator must set a firm stop before making a trade and must never sustain a loss of more than 10 percent of invested capital. I have also learned that when your broker calls you and tells you he needs more money for a margin requirement on a stock that is declining, tell him to sell out the position. When you buy a stock at 50 and it goes to 45, do not buy more in order to average out your price. The stock has not done what you predicted; that is enough of an indication that your judgment was wrong. Take your losses quickly and get out. Remember, never meet a margin call, and never average losses. Many times I would close out a position before suffering a 10 percent loss. I did this simply because the stock was not acting right from the start. Often my instincts would whisper to me: “J.L., this stock has a malaise, it is a lagging dullard. It just does not feel right,” and I would sell out of my position in the blink of an eye. I absolutely believe that price movement patterns are repeated and appear over and over with slight variations. This is because humans drive the stocks, and human nature never changes. Take your losses quickly. Easy to say, but hard to do.
3) Keep cash in reserve. The successful speculator must always have cash in reserve…for exactly the right moment. There is a never-ending stream of opportunities in the stock market and, if you miss a good opportunity, wait a little while, be patient, and another one will come along. Don’t reach for a trade, all the conditions for a good trade must be on your side. Remember, you do not have to be in the market all the time. The desire to always be in the game is one of the speculator’s greatest hazards. When playing the stock market, there are times when your money should be waiting on the sidelines in cash…waiting to come into play. Time is not money – time is time, and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a fast fortune. Patience is the key to success, not speed. Time is a cunning speculator’s best friend if it is used wisely.
4) Let the position ride. As long as the stock is behaving normally, do not be in a hurry to take a profit. You must know you are right in your basic judgment, or you would have no profit at all. If there is nothing basically negative, then let it ride. It may grow into a very large profit. As long as the action of the overall market and the stock do not give you cause to worry, have the courage of your convictions, and stay with it. When I was in a profit on a trade, I was never nervous. Of course the opposite is true as well. If I bought a stock and it went against me I would sell it immediately. You can’t stop and try to figure out why a stock is going in the wrong direction. The fact is that it is going in the wrong direction, and that is enough evidence for an experienced speculator to close the trade. I do not and never have blindly bought and held a stock. To buy and hold blindly on the basis that a stock is in great company or a strong industry, or that the economy is generally healthy, is, to me the equivalent of stock market suicide. Stick with the winners. Let them ride until you have a clear reason to sell.
5) Take the profits in cash. I recommend parking 50 percent of the profits from a successful trade, especially when the trade doubled the original capital. Set the money aside, put it in the bank, hold it in reserve, or lock it up in a safe-deposit box. Like winning in the casino, it’s a good idea, now and then to take your winnings off the table and turn them into cash….the single largest regret I have ever had in my financial life was not paying enough attention to this rule. Now our comments… Livermore gets criticized for being a plunger…than means putting most or all him money in the market, but he only added to positions that showed him a profit and he typically started with a 20% position. That means if he wanted 1000 shares, he’d buy 200, and only if that showed him a profit did he take his next 200. So although he has been criticized for putting all his eggs in one basket, he did it responsibly and would exit if the market told him he was wrong. We find it interesting that Livermore started out as a day trader or a very short term trader (in the bucket shops), but when he made a lot of money, he became a swing trader. When you are just starting out, it’s best to trade short term…constantly rolling money from one position to the next, but when you have much larger stake, it’s better to play the bigger swings. Livermore was also criticism as being a great bear, but nothing could be further from the truth. He was a trader…pure and simple. If the market was going up, he’d be long big time. If the market was falling, he’d be short. He made a killing riding the market up during the late 20’s and then made a bigger killing when the market crashed. He was not a bear; he was not a bull; he was a trader willing to go either way. In his own words, there are two types or traders….profitable and not profitable. We found his fifth rule to be interesting. He lost a fortune on numerous occasions, so it’s not surprising that his biggest regret was not putting a little money in a safe place. The market is driven by people and human nature does not change. Although these lessons are from a man who traded over 65 years ago, they are just as relevant today.
Part 2 – Quotes from Livermore:
“…it is what people actually did in the stock market that counted – not what they said they were going to do.” Livermore studied his mistakes objectively…”the only way you get a real education in the market is to invest cash, track your trade, and study your mistakes!” It is emotionally difficult to review you mistakes, since the speculator must wade through his own bad trades and blunders. And these are not simple blunders; these are blunders that cost money. Anyone who has lost money by investing poorly knows how difficult it is to reexamine what occurred. The examination of a losing trade is tortuous but necessary to ensure that it will not happen again. Livermore was brutal in self-analysis. He told his sons his conclusions: “Successful trading is always an emotional battle for the speculator, not an intelligent battle.”…He knew that his biggest enemy was his own emotions. “We are the sum total of our experience.” When asked what makes a good stock speculator, Livermore replied “…it’s an aptitude for the game, a stomach for the ride, and the ability to see what is happening without emotion. The ability to make observations that others don’t and a good memory….Only speculate if you can make it a full-time job. Don’t take tips of any kind, no matter where they come from. Don’t worry about catching tops or bottoms, that’s fools play. Keep the number of stocks you own to a controllable number. It’s hard to herd cats, and it’s hard to track a lot of securities. Take your losses quickly and don’t brood about them. Try to learn from them but mistakes are as inevitable as death. And only make a big move, a real big plunge, when a majority of factors are in your favor….every once in a while you must go to cash, take a break, take a vacation. Don’t try to play the market all the time. It can’t be done, too tough on the emotions.” “The unsuccessful investor is best friends with hope, and hope skips along life’s path hand in hand with greed when it comes to the stock market. Once a stock trade is entered, hope springs to life. It is human nature to be positive, to hope for the best. Hope is an important survival technique. But hope, like its stock market cousins ignorance, greed, and fear, distorts reason. See the stock market only deals in facts, in reality, in reason, and the stock market is never wrong. Traders are wrong. Like the spinning of a roulette wheel, the little black ball tells the final outcome, not greed, fear or hope. The result is objective and final, with no appeal. “I believe that the public wants to be led, to be instructed, to be told what to do. They want reassurance. They will always move en mass, a mob, a herd, a group, because people want the safety of human company. They are afraid to stand alone because they want to be safely included within the herd, not to be the lone calf standing on the desolate, dangerous, wolf-patrolled prairie of contrary opinion.” “First, do not be invested in the market all the time. There are many times when I have been completely in cash, especially when I was unsure of the direction of the market and waiting for a confirmation of the next move....Second, it is the change in the major trend that hurts most speculators.” “The last gasp of heavy volume provides a great opportunity to sell out any illiquid large holdings. I knew it was foolish to ever catch the tops or the bottoms of the moves. It is always better to sell large holdings into an advancing market when there is plenty of volume. The same is true on the short side; you are best to cover the short position after a steep fast decline.”
“…the market will often go contrary to what speculators have predicted. At these times, successful speculators must abandon their predictions and follow the action of the market. Prudent speculators never argue with the tape. Markets are never wrong, but opinions often are.” “All through time, people have basically acted the same way in the market as a result of greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. This is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis.” “Every stock is like a human being: it has a personality, a distinctive personality. Aggressive, reserved, hyper, high-strung, volatile, boring, direct, logical, predictable, unpredictable. I often studied stocks like I would study people; after a while their reactions to certain circumstances become more predictable.” “I believe that having the discipline to follow your rules is essential. Without specific, clear, and tested rules, speculators do not have any real chance of success. Why? Because speculators without a plan are like a general without a strategy, and therefore without an actionable battle plan. Speculators without a single clear plan can only act and react, act and react, to the slings and arrows of stock market misfortune, until they are defeated.” “If you can’t sleep at night because of your stock market position, then you have gone too far. If this is the case, then sell your position down to the sleeping level.” “I believe that anyone who is intelligent, conscientious, and willing to put in the necessary time can be successful on Wall Street. As long as they realize the market is a business like any other business, they have a good chance to prosper.” “Remember, it [the market] is designed to fool most of the people most of the time.” “…I have always fully understood that I am not the only one who knows that the stock market is the world’s biggest gold mine, sitting at the foot of the island of Manhattan. A gold mine that opens its doors every day and invites anyone and everyone in to plump its depths and leave with wheelbarrows full of gold bars, if they can – and I have done it. The gold mine is there all right, and every day somebody plumps it’s depths, and when the bell rings at the end of the day they have gone from pauper to prince, or gone from prince to supreme potentate, or gone stony broke. And it’s always there waiting.” “I believe that uncontrolled basic emotions are the true and deadly enemy of the speculator; that hope, fear, and greed are always present, sitting on the edge of the psyche, waiting on the sidelines, waiting to jump into the action, plow into the game.” “These words [bullish, bearish] are not in my vocabulary because I believe they can create an emotional mind-set of a specific market direction in a speculator’s mind. “I never try to predict or anticipate. I only try to react to what the market is telling me by its behavior.” “I believe there are no good stocks or bad stocks; there are only money making stocks. So there is no good direction to trade, short or long; there is only the money-making way to trade.” “Greed, fear, impatience, and hope will all fight for mental dominance over the speculator.”
“My satisfaction always came from beating the market, solving the puzzle. The money was the reward, but it was not the main reason I loved the market. The stock market is the greatest, most complex puzzle ever invented – and it pays the biggest jackpot….it was never the money that drove me. It was the game, solving the puzzle, beating the market that had confused and confounded the greatest minds in history. For me, that passion, the juice, the exhilaration was in beating the game, a game that was a living dynamic riddle, a conundrum to everyone who speculated on Wall Street.” “Always remember; you can win a horse race, but you can’t beat the races. You can win on a stock, but you cannot beat Wall Street all the time. Nobody can.”
Richard Smitten’s comments:
He quickly learned that it was never what the brokers, or the customers, or the newspapers said – the only thing that was important was what the tape said. The tape had a life of its own, and its was the most important life. Its verdict was final. He learned to be interested only in the change in price, not the reason for the change. He had no time to waste trying to rationalize the action of the stock. There could be a million reasons why the price had changed. These reasons would be revealed later, after the fact. He knew that unless he actually purchased a stock, he could never know how he would handle himself. When a trader made a bet everything changed, and he knew it. Then and only then did the trader enter the heated jungle of emotions…fear and greed. You either control them or they control you. He worked alone…never telling anyone what he was doing, never taking on a partner. The trill came from the winning, not the money, though the money was nice. He never blamed the market. It was illogical to get angry at an inanimate object, like a gambler getting mad at a deck of cards. There was no arguing with the tape. The tape was always right; it was the players who were wrong. His first conclusion was that he won when all the factors were in his favor, when he was patient and waited for all the ducks to line up in a row. That led him to his second conclusion, that no one could or should trade the market all the time. There were times when a trader should be out of the market, in cash, waiting. To speculate, a trader had to be a player, not a theorist, or an economist, or an analyst. A speculator had to be a player with money down on the table. It was not the coach or the team’s owner who won the game, it was the players on the field – just as it was not the generals who won the battle, it was the grunts on the ground. You had to lose, because it taught you what not to do…his conclusions were developing from actual trading, from hands-on participation in the market and constant analysis. He never used the words bull market or bear market because these terms tended to make too permanent a psychological mind-set. Livermore was looking for the difference between stock gambling and stock speculation …Livermore’s final conclusion was clear: To anticipate the market is to gamble; to be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate. The first step was to concentrate on the overall market before making a trade. He would follow the line of least resistance – up in a bull market, buy long, down in a bear market, sell short. If the market went sideways, he would wait in cash for a clear direction to be established…. He would not anticipate the market by guessing its direction….Livermore had come to realize that the big money was in the big swings….It is the big moves that make the big money.
Livermore believed that stocks are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling short. Livermore believed that there was only one side of the market to avoid. He could be on the bull side or the bear side – it made no difference to Livermore – just as long as he was not on the wrong side. From experience, Livermore knew that one of the hardest things to do as a trader was to sell out a position early if he was wrong on the initial purchase and the stock moved against him. He did not care why things happened in the market, he cared only what happened every day when the market opened.…He observed that the market always did what it wanted to do, not what it was expected to do. Livermore had a steadfast rule that if something serendipitous, an unplanned windfall, should occur, he must capitalize on it and not be greedy – accept his good fortune and close out his position. Livermore loved the fact that in trading the market there was no end to the learning process. The game was never over, and he could never know enough to beat the market all the time. The puzzle could never be solved…he never considered himself a market master. He always considered himself a market student who occasionally traded correctly. Livermore had long ago realized that the stock market was never obvious. It was designed to fool most of the people most of the time. His rules were based on thinking against the grain: cut your losses quickly; let your profits ride unless there’s a good reason to close out the position; the action is with the leading stocks, which change with every new market; new highs are to be bought on breakouts; cheap stocks are often not a bargain, because they have little potential to rise in price. The stock market is a study in cycles. It never goes up forever, nor does it go down forever, but when it changes direction it remains in that new trend until it is stopped. He considered it necessary to act like a poker player in his business, to never tip his hand or to react emotionally. Because of this inability and unwillingness to express his emotions, the stress on him was permanent. Timing was everything to a speculator. It was never if a stock was going to move; it was when a stock was going to move up or down. Livermore always considered time as a real and essential trading element. He often would say it’s not the thinking that makes the money – it’s the sitting and waiting that makes the money….This has been incorrectly interpreted by many people to mean that Livermore would buy a stock and then sit and wait for it to move. This is not so. There were many occasions where Livermore sat and waited in cash, holding little or no stock, until the right situation appeared. He was able to sit and wait patiently in cash until the perfect situation presented itself to him. When conditions came together, when as many of the odds as possible were in his favor, then and only then would he strike. Livermore let the market tell him what to do, he got his clues and his cues from what the market told him. He did not anticipate, he followed the message he received from the tape.
It’s scary to think how much money Livermore would make if he traded today…his ability to read the tape when the tape wasn’t even that reliable. He is in our opinion the best ever. Since the market is an extension of human psychology and human emotion and because people don’t change, the market doesn’t change. The players change; the underlying issues change; trading doesn’t change, and that’s why over 60 years after he committed suicide, Livermore’s words of wisdom are still relevant.
Jesse Livermore Photo Album
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator Book, by Edwin Lefèvre: Of the eight books authored by Edwin Lefèvre his Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is considered a must-read classic by most anyone involved in the American financial community. You can download Reminiscences of a Stock Operator here free as a pdf file. The book began as a series of twelve articles published between 1922 and 1923 in The Saturday Evening Post. It is written as first-person fiction, telling the story of a professional stock trader on Wall Street. While published as fiction, it is generally accepted to be the biography of stock market whiz Jesse Livermore. His 1901 book, Wall Street Stories, is online as well.
This is the MUST read on Jesse Livermore's techniques, download it here for better resolution or go here to see it posted as a blog post or here on the web:
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator -
Jesse Livermore Timeline
Jesse Livermore - Market Master
Can you trade like Jesse Livermore? forum
Death of Jesse Livermore: Jesse Livermore, 63, died by his own hand on November 28, 1940 via a revolver bullet through the brain. He shot himself in the cloakroom of the Sherry Netherland Hotel in Manhattan. His suicide note to his wife said:“My dear Nina: Can’t help it. Things have been bad with me. I am tired of fighting. Can’t carry on any longer. This is the only way out. I am unworthy of your love. I am a failure. I am truly sorry, but this is the only way out for me. Love Laurie”.
Although untouchable trusts and cash assets at his death totaled over $5 million, Livermore had failed to regain his trading confidence before his death. A lifelong history of clinical depression had become the dominant factor in his final years.
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Jesse Livermore's Averaging Up Technique, courtesy of Arun Prashanth:
Jesse Livermore is considered to be one of the Greatest Speculators of All-time if not the best. Starting at an early age of 15, Livermore went on to shock the Street with his extraordinary plunges and was once called the “Boy Plunger”. In this post I will explain in detail a strategy he used to cut his losses effectively and let his profits run. The following technique works best for Swing trading and Position trading but it doesn't mean it cant be used for other types of trading.
Averaging down is one of the worst things which can be done in trading. Why would you
want to add to a position which is losing? Its blind gambling from that point on. Your just hoping for the prices to come up when in reality your losing and the markets are telling straight on your face that your wrong. In trading, when the markets tell you that your wrong, it is best to accept it and cut your losses as soon as possible and get out immediately. We can never know for sure if the
stock will come back. Averaging down maybe a good idea in Value Investing but it is never good while your trading. Remember “Never turn your trade into an Investment”.
Now let me come back to the topic in discussion. Averaging up is the same as Averaging down but the only difference is that your doing it in the other direction. And you know your right every time you add to your position. Confirming the fact that you are correct gives you confidence and helps you catch the full trend or at least the major part of it which makes the big money .
As Jesse Livermore said, "And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying and selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine - that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance."
The above quote is from Jesse Livermore's book “How to Trade In Stocks” - the book is presented below in its entirety:
Jesse Livermore-How to Trade in Stocks (1940 Original)-En
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One of Jesse Livermore's favorite books, Memoirs of the Popular Delusions and the Madness of the Crowds by Charles Mackay. This was also a favorite book of Bernard Baruch, a stock trader and close friend of Livermore who also was one of the few people that did well in the crash of 1929:
Popular Delusions and the Madness of the crowds
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For a comprehensive study of candlestick charting this 316 page book by Steve Nison is it:
Steve Nison Japanese Candlesticks Charting Techniques
Movie on the Crash of 1929 made in the mid nineties:
And now for some fun from the popular Glenn Beck:
Paul Tudor Jones II (from 1987) - Wiki: Paul Tudor Jones II (born September 28, 1954, Memphis, Tennessee) is a well-known hedge fund manager. Having made $750 million in 2006, he is worth an estimated $3.3 billion, and was ranked by Forbes in March 2007 as the 369th richest person in the world:
Complete 55 minute movie of above Paul Tudor Jones II movie available here.
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